Can experts, whether self-proclaimed or endorsed by others (publications), provide reliable stock market timing guidance? Do some experts clearly show better intuition about overall market direction than others?
We have accumulated reviews of the public U.S. stock market forecasts of various investing/trading experts for more than two years. With nearly 5,000 measurements for about 60 gurus, including bulls and bears and technicians and fundamentalists, we have critical mass for: (1) assessing the forecasting acumen of the stock market gurus as a group; and, (2) ranking experts according to the accuracy of their past forecasts. This kind of forecasting ability is different from, but may be related to, stock picking expertise.
Note that the overall assessment of the stock market forecasting ability of experts in aggregate is far more reliable, based on sample size and duration, than the evaluations of individuals.
Note also that this study is not a test of whether the outputs of the experts are interesting, stimulating or useful in ways other than predicting the behavior of the overall U.S. stock market.
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